Looking South for Minnesota Conservation Planning
Minnesota winters are in danger! We have the greatest predicted winter warming in the lower 48 states, according to a study published in the journal of Earth and Space Science. By year 2100, the amount of snow we get and the number of days it sticks around will both decrease drastically. Snow depth could decrease by 12 cm, and the number of snowy days in a year could decrease by 55 days. That’s almost 2 months of snow lost! This research is from the University of Minnesota Department of Soil, Water, and Climate.
Not only are winter precipitation patterns changing, but spring and summer seasons too. Rainfall will likely increase (strangely enough), especially in northern Minnesota. This all has a direct correlation to the steadily rising average temperatures – winters are predicted to increase by 6 degrees celsius and summers by 4 degrees celsius (Earth and Space Science).
The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources and the Pollution Control Agency have both published similar trend predictions and data. All in all, climate projections indicate that Minnesota’s natural ecosystems will be heavily affected by increasing temperatures and rainfall.
Heavy rains are becoming more frequent and more obstructive for prairie lands. While these plants are hardy, flooding prairie lands means growth could be inhibited. Native plants are necessary in the great plains because many species have deep roots that absorb excess nutrient pollution in the soil and generally increase water quality. Nitrate and phosphorus are two major nutrient pollutants that cause rapid algae growth in lakes. Prairie plants also hold an immense amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide so they are a great asset for fighting against climate change.
Additionally, as annual temperatures rise, the number of warm days increases, stretching the length of the growing season. That means more water will be needed during the growing season which (again) leads to water runoff and nutrient pollution in the lakes. Native plants are a necessary part of Minnesota ecosystems, helping to preserve whatever native species/trees we are able to as seasonal patterns shift.
Photo from West Central Initiative https://wcif.org/blog/environment/prairies-are-climate-change-champions/#:~:text=With%20more%20warmer%20days%2C%20plants,which%20will%20increase%20nutrient%20pollution
“What can we do??” you might ask.
Well we can begin adaptive conservation planning. If we orient our research and mitigation projects towards adapting to projected climate changes, we can respond quicker to preserve our ecosystems. This will impact important state industries like agriculture, water and energy management, forestry, and health care. So we need to get everyone involved!
Interestingly, “in 50 years, Minnesota’s climate is expected to resemble that of present-day Missouri’s, approximately 500 miles south” according to Minnesota Land Trust. Turning to states like Missouri and Iowa for southerly varieties of native species could help create future habitats of resilience!
This will be a long and hard road, but the more industries and individuals we have working together, the more equipped we’ll be to take care of Minnesota’s precious ecosystems.
